As I predicted, El Firmazo of February 2 produced no result. Today the electoral body said the signatures gathered that day are not valid. The main reason for rejection was that the question was poorly formed. Some of us predicted this result. I have been right three times and wrong one (on the coup of April 2002). Here are my successes:
- The military in Plaza Altamira hurts the opposition. few people still doubt this, the military are still there...
- The Strike was an ill-timed failure. Very few doubt this now...
- El Firmazo would fail... Today is proof of that.
Some people are trying to spin this by saying that a new Firmazo will galvanized the opposition. The main problem with the opposition is neither numbers, nor passion. The problem is political intelligence. What the government wants is to push the referendum until the Vice-President will stay in charge, at that time, the main motivation of the greedy opposition politicians (that they can win the presidency without deserving it or working for it) will disappear. And Chavez supporters (who are still the main political force in Venezuela) would, effectively have gain until the 2006 elections. I don't know what the plan is to avoid defeat then, but I'm sure they do... You heard it here first...